Historical Lessons on Vaccine Hesitancy: Smallpox, Polio, and Measles, and Implications for COVID-19.

Vaccine hesitancy continues to pose a formidable obstacle to increasing national COVID-19 vaccination rates in the US, but this is not the first time that American vaccination efforts have confronted resistance and apathy. This study examines the history of US vaccination efforts against smallpox, polio, and measles, highlighting persistent drivers of vaccine hesitancy as well as factors that helped overcome it. The research reveals that logistical barriers, negative portrayals in the media, and fears about safety stymied inoculation efforts as early as the 18th century and continue to do so. However, vaccine hesitancy has been markedly diminished when trusted community leaders have guided efforts, when ordinary citizens have felt personally invested in the success of the vaccine, and when vaccination efforts have been tied to broader projects to improve public health and social cohesion. Deliberately cultivating such factors could be an effective strategy for lessening opposition today, when COVID-19's distinctive characteristics make addressing vaccine hesitancy more urgent than it has ever been.

[Historical milestones for the control of severe infections and sepsis in pediatrics. Approach through medical philately]. / Hitos históricos para el control de las infecciones graves y la sepsis en pediatría. Aproximación a través de la filatelia médica.

Medical philately, with its diverse themes, is a faithful testimony of the historical events that have affected humanity. Likewise, it allows us to evidence its role as a diffuser of diverse prevention cam paigns carried out to control and eradicate serious infections, together with other achievements of health policy in the child population. Nowadays, the knowledge and collection of postage stamps is an increasingly unusual pastime. On the other hand, sometimes there is a marked historical ignoran ce and lack of appreciation of the effective actions for the control of infectious diseases, forgetting the enormous effect of these on the daily life of the current society. Through the visual testimony offe red by the postage stamps, we review the sanitary, educational, and therapeutic actions destined to control the infections in the pediatric patient, with emphasis on our country. In addition, we discuss the new populations at risk for the appearance of septic episodes. Even today, serious infections and sepsis represent an important public health problem.

De curandis hominum morbis: An 18th century medical prescription for measles and smallpox in the Nuevo Reino de Granada / De curandis hominum morbis: una receta médica del siglo XVIII para el sarampión y las viruelas en el Nuevo Reino de Granada

A collection of more than one hundred medical recipes from the late 18th century was donated by Presbyter Cipriano Rodríguez Santa María, institutional eponym of the collection at the Historical Archive "Octavio Arizmendi Posada" of the library of the Universidad de La Sabana in Colombia. These texts represent an important historical and medical legacy and they constitute an important basis for understanding the colonial and traditional therapeutics related to various diseases. In this article, we describe one of these recipes for the treatment of smallpox and measles as a contribution to the history of medicine in Colombia.

En el Archivo Histórico de la Biblioteca "Octavio Arizmendi Posada" de la Universidad de La Sabana, se encuentra una colección de más de un centenar de recetas médicas de finales del siglo XVIII donadas por el presbítero Cipriano Rodríguez Santa María, epónimo institucional del archivo. Estos textos son un legado histórico médico y un fundamento para comprender la terapéutica colonial y tradicional de diversas enfermedades. En este artículo, se describen algunas recetas para el tratamiento de la viruela y el sarampión, como aporte a la historia de la medicina en Colombia.

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Military Hygiene at the United States Military Academy between 1890 and 1910.

INTRODUCTION: Military installations are at increased risk for the transmission of infectious disease. Personnel who live and train on military installations live and train near one another facilitating disease transmission. An understanding of historical sanitation and hygiene can inform modern practices. This is especially pertinent considering the continuing rise of variants of infectious diseases, such as the recent pandemic of the 2019 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. In this article, we review the rise and decline of infectious disease at the United States Military Academy (USMA) during the period spanning 1890 through 1910, and the public health interventions used to combat disease spread. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Primary data regarding cadet illness were acquired from the historical archives of the USMA. These included annual reports, clinical admission records, casualty ledgers, and sanitation reports. Unpublished documents from the medical history of USMA provide periodic trends of health among cadets because of infectious disease. RESULTS: Between 1890 and 1910, the USMA at West Point was confronted with cases of influenza, measles, mumps, scarlet fever, smallpox, typhus, and malaria. In response, a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were instituted to curb the spread of infectious disease. These interventions most likely proved effective in suppressing the transmission of communicable diseases. The most common and arguably the most effective NPI was the physical separation of the sick from the well. CONCLUSIONS: The USMA experience mirrored what was occurring in the larger U.S. Army in the early 20th century and may serve as a model for the application of NPIs in response to modern infectious diseases resulting from novel or unknown etiologies.

Measles virus and rinderpest virus divergence dated to the sixth century BCE.

Many infectious diseases are thought to have emerged in humans after the Neolithic revolution. Although it is broadly accepted that this also applies to measles, the exact date of emergence for this disease is controversial. We sequenced the genome of a 1912 measles virus and used selection-aware molecular clock modeling to determine the divergence date of measles virus and rinderpest virus. This divergence date represents the earliest possible date for the establishment of measles in human populations. Our analyses show that the measles virus potentially arose as early as the sixth century BCE, possibly coinciding with the rise of large cities.

El papel desempeñado por los médicos, el gobierno y la OMS en la implementación de las encuestas serológicas sobre polio, sarampión y rubeola en España (1958-1978) / The role played by doctors, the government and the WWO in the implementation of poliomyelitis, measles and rubella serological surveys in Spain (1958-1978)

Las encuestas serológicas, que adquirieron gran relevancia a mediados del siglo XX, siguen siendo herramienta clave para abordar las enfermedades infecciosas. El artículo, utilizando fuentes archivísticas e impresas de la OMS, prensa médica y general, analiza el papel de médicos y científicos, gobierno y la OMS en la implementación de los estudios serológicos para evaluar la situación de la poliomielitis, sarampión y rubeola en España y establecer un plan de actuación contra ellas. El trabajo muestra el protagonismo de Florencio Pérez Gallardo y su grupo de la Escuela Nacional de Sanidad, privilegiado por el régimen franquista para recibir el apoyo de los programas colaborativos de la OMS, tras la entrada de España en ella en 1951, y el impacto de dichos programas en la transformación científico-profesional del núcleo virológico de Madrid, acompañado del establecimiento de nuevas instituciones, que permitieron modernizar la virología, paralelamente al desarrollo y ejecución de las encuestas serológicas mencionadas. El estudio revela igualmente el desarrollo paralelo de grupos científicos catalanes, que gozaron de reconocimiento internacional y dinamizaron la lucha contra las enfermedades estudiadas, pero también el papel clave de la circulación de los expertos de la OMS y los investigadores españoles para vehicular conocimiento científico y prácticas

Serological surveys, which acquired considerable importance in the mid twentieth century, are still a key tool to address infectious diseases. This article, using archival and printed sources from the WHO and the medical and general press, analyses the role of doctors and scientists, government, and the WHO in the implementation of serological surveys to evaluate the situation of poliomyelitis, measles and rubella in Spain and to set up a plan of action against them. The paper shows the role of Florencio Pérez Gallardo and his group at the National School of Health, favoured by the Franco regime to receive the support of WHO collaborative programmes after Spain joined in 1951, and the impact of these programmes on the scientific and professional transformation of the virological nucleus of Madrid, together with the establishment of new institutions enabling the modernisation of virology, in parallel with the development and execution of the serological surveys. The study also reveals the parallel development of Catalan scientific groups, who enjoyed international recognition and boosted the fight against the diseases studied, as well as the key role of the circulation of WHO experts and Spanish researchers in the spreading of scientific knowledge and practices

Global trends in measles publications.

INTRODUCTION: Beginning with the 1960s, this review analyzes trends in publications on measles indexed by the National Library of Medicine from January 1960 to mid-2018. It notes both the growth in numbers of published papers, and the increasing number and proportion of publications, in the current century, of articles on such items as costing, measles elimination, and determinants of coverage. METHODS: A two-person team extracted from the National Library of Medicine (NLM) homepage all citations on measles beginning in 1960 and continuing through mid-2018. These were then classified both by overall number and by subject matter, with tabular summaries of both by decade and by subject matter. The tabular presentation forms the basis for a discussion of the ten most frequently cited subjects, and publication trends, with a special emphasis on the current century. RESULTS: As in the past, the most often currently published items have been on coverage and its determinants, measles elimination, outbreak reports, SSPE, and SIAs. The putative relationship between vaccination and autism saw a spurt of articles in the 1990s, rapidly declining after the IOM report rejecting the causative hypothesis. CONCLUSION: There is a discussion on the sequencing of polio and measles eradication, the former unlikely before 2022, and an examination of likely research priorities as the world moves from measles control to measles eradication. There is a key role for social science in combatting vaccination reticence. The role of technical innovations, such as micropatch vaccination, is discussed.

Measles, Malnutrition and Mortality: Puerto Rico, 1917-1918.

OBJECTIVE: Recent measles outbreaks in the United States and Europe have highlighted the threat of the disease. We studied the 1917-1918 epidemic in Puerto Rico to better understand the social and place-specific risk factors and severity of such crises. METHODS: We reviewed medical and government reports, newspapers and private contemporary documents. RESULTS: The epidemic developed over two years, encompassed the Island, and caused nearly 2,000 deaths among more than 9,000 registered cases (with much underreporting). During the first six months, 59% of fatalities were children under 2 years of age. Officials recognized poor nutrition and living conditions as an important determinant of epidemic severity. Responses came from different social sectors before the central government mobilized to help. In San Juan, Catholic and Protestant churches and philanthropic women from both Spanish and Englishlanguage communities joined to provide free milk to needy children and create a temporary Infants' Hospital. Despite food scarcity and wartime conditions, central and municipal governments established hospitals and milk stations. CONCLUSION: Studies that examine the impact of reemerging diseases in a time and place-specific context look at disease severity together with the socioeconomic conditions of patients and health care systems. This type of investigation also suggests avenues into the history of pediatrics, the use of epidemiologic methods, the utility of historical statistics, nutritional history, and the history of disaster response. Historical and recent outbreaks show the need for health care professionals and public health systems to be prepared to confront measles epidemics.

[Measles]. / Sarampión.

In April 2019, UNICEF denounced that more than 20 million children worldwide had not been vaccinated and alerted on possible outbreaks of measles which, due to the high transmissibility of this virus, is the first disease preventable by vaccination to emerge. If the decline in vaccinations continues, pertussis, tetanus and other diseases, which require less coverage to achieve population protection, may also reappear. In Argentina, the current outbreak began in late August 2019. Measles virus is transmitted by air, infects multiple organs, and is associated with immunosuppression. Its genome consists of single stranded RNA. Genotyping is carried out by sequencing a 450-nucleotide fragment of the N protein, which contains the highest density of nucleotide variation. In South America, D8 is the circulating genotype and in North America, B3 accounts for 8% of the cases. Each person with measles infects, on average, another 12-18 people in a susceptible population. Vaccination confers direct and indirect protection, and induces both antibodies and cellular immunity. Newborns are protected by maternal antibodies transmitted via the placenta, up to 6 months. In Argentina, the Vaccination Calendar includes two doses of triple viral vaccine, at 12 months and 5 years, and a zero dose (6-11 months of age) in districts with disease cases. The protection conferred by the vaccine is 93% at 12 months with a dose, and with 2 doses 97% for life.

En abril de 2019, UNICEF denunció que más de 20 millones de niños en todo el mundo no habían sido vacunados y alertó sobre posibles brotes de sarampión que, por su alta contagiosidad, es la primera enfermedad en emerger entre las prevenibles mediante vacunación. De continuar el descenso en las vacunaciones, podrían reaparecer también pertussis, tétanos y otras enfermedades con menor requerimiento de cobertura para alcanzar protección poblacional. A fin de agosto de 2019 se inició en la Argentina el actual brote de sarampión. Este virus se transmite por vía respiratoria, infecta múltiples órganos e induce inmunosupresión. Su genoma consiste en ARN de cadena simple. La genotipificación se efectúa por secuenciación de un fragmento de 450 nucleótidos de la proteína N que contiene la mayor densidad de variación de nucleótidos del genoma. En Sudamérica circula el genotipo D8, y en Norteamérica hay, además, un 8% de genotipo B3. Cada persona con sarampión infecta, en promedio, otras 12-18 en una población susceptible. La vacunación confiere protección directa e indirecta, e induce tanto anticuerpos como inmunidad celular. Los recién nacidos tienen protección hasta los 6 meses por anticuerpos maternos transmitidos vía placentaria. En la Argentina, el Calendario de Vacunación incluye dos dosis de triple viral, a los 12 meses y a los 5 años, y una dosis cero (6-11 meses de edad) en distritos con casos de enfermedad. Una dosis protege al 93% de los vacunados a los 12 meses y dos dosis al 97%, de por vida.

Sarampión / Measles

En abril de 2019, UNICEF denunció que más de 20 millones de niños en todo el mundo no habían sido vacunados y alertó sobre posibles brotes de sarampión que, por su alta contagiosidad, es la primera enfermedad en emerger entre las prevenibles mediante vacunación. De continuar el descenso en las vacunaciones, podrían reaparecer también pertussis, tétanos y otras enfermedades con menor requerimiento de cobertura para alcanzar protección poblacional. A fin de agosto de 2019 se inició en la Argentina el actual brote de sarampión. Este virus se transmite por vía respiratoria, infecta múltiples órganos e induce inmunosupresión. Su genoma consiste en ARN de cadena simple. La genotipificación se efectúa por secuenciación de un fragmento de 450 nucleótidos de la proteína N que contiene la mayor densidad de variación de nucleótidos del genoma. En Sudamérica circula el genotipo D8, y en Norteamérica hay, además, un 8% de genotipo B3. Cada persona con sarampión infecta, en promedio, otras 12-18 en una población susceptible. La vacunación confiere protección directa e indirecta, e induce tanto anticuerpos como inmunidad celular. Los recién nacidos tienen protección hasta los 6 meses por anticuerpos maternos transmitidos vía placentaria. En la Argentina, el Calendario de Vacunación incluye dos dosis de triple viral, a los 12 meses y a los 5 años, y una dosis cero (6- 11 meses de edad) en distritos con casos de enfermedad. Una dosis protege al 93% de los vacunados a los 12 meses y dos dosis al 97%, de por vida.

In April 2019, UNICEF denounced that more than 20 million children worldwide had not been vaccinated and alerted on possible outbreaks of measles which, due to the high transmissibility of this virus, is the first disease preventable by vaccination to emerge. If the decline in vaccinations continues, pertussis, tetanus and other diseases, which require less coverage to achieve population protection, may also reappear. In Argentina, the current outbreak began in late August 2019. Measles virus is transmitted by air, infects multiple organs, and is associated with immunosuppression. Its genome consists of single stranded RNA. Genotyping is carried out by sequencing a 450-nucleotide fragment of the N protein, which contains the highest density of nucleotide variation. In South America, D8 is the circulating genotype and in North America, B3 accounts for 8% of the cases. Each person with measles infects, on average, another 12-18 people in a susceptible population. Vaccination confers direct and indirect protection, and induces both antibodies and cellular immunity. Newborns are protected by maternal antibodies transmitted via the placenta, up to 6 months. In Argentina, the Vaccination Calendar includes two doses of triple viral vaccine, at 12 months and 5 years, and a zero dose (6- 11 months of age) in districts with disease cases. The protection conferred by the vaccine is 93% at 12 months with a dose, and with 2 doses 97% for life.

Long-term dynamics of measles in London: Titrating the impact of wars, the 1918 pandemic, and vaccination.

A key question in ecology is the relative impact of internal nonlinear dynamics and external perturbations on the long-term trajectories of natural systems. Measles has been analyzed extensively as a paradigm for consumer-resource dynamics due to the oscillatory nature of the host-pathogen life cycle, the abundance of rich data to test theory, and public health relevance. The dynamics of measles in London, in particular, has acted as a prototypical test bed for such analysis using incidence data from the pre-vaccination era (1944-1967). However, during this timeframe there were few external large-scale perturbations, limiting an assessment of the relative impact of internal and extra demographic perturbations to the host population. Here, we extended the previous London analyses to include nearly a century of data that also contains four major demographic changes: the First and Second World Wars, the 1918 influenza pandemic, and the start of a measles mass vaccination program. By combining mortality and incidence data using particle filtering methods, we show that a simple stochastic epidemic model, with minimal historical specifications, can capture the nearly 100 years of dynamics including changes caused by each of the major perturbations. We show that the majority of dynamic changes are explainable by the internal nonlinear dynamics of the system, tuned by demographic changes. In addition, the 1918 influenza pandemic and World War II acted as extra perturbations to this basic epidemic oscillator. Our analysis underlines that long-term ecological and epidemiological dynamics can follow very simple rules, even in a non-stationary population subject to significant perturbations and major secular changes.

On Stable Parameter Estimation and Forecasting in Epidemiology by the Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm with Broyden's Rank-one Updates for the Jacobian Operator.

Rigorously calibrating dynamic models with time-series data can pose roadblocks. Oftentimes, the problem is ill-posed and one has to rely on appropriate regularization techniques to ensure stable parameter estimation from which forward projections with quantified uncertainty could be generated. If the inversion procedure is cast as nonlinear least squares constrained by a system of nonlinear differential equations, then the system has to be solved numerically at every step of the iterative process and the corresponding parameter-to-data map cannot be used to evaluate the Fréchet derivative analytically. To address challenges related to both instability and Jacobian approximation, we propose a novel regularized Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with iterative rank-one updates for computation of the derivative operator. In order to test the efficiency of this scheme, we conduct numerical experiments using a mathematical model of infectious disease transmission and real incidence data of historic measles outbreaks in the UK.